Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08e7…4f63 sports 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,291 (-20%) realized −$2,146 · open −$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,146
7 days+$10
14 days−$199
30 days−$1,162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,824
crypto 4% −$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +3.4% -6.5% 45% 45% -9.3%
≤30d 80 -16.1% -24.1% 39% 39% -20.2%
≤90d 92 -20.7% -28.3% 37% 37% -25.6%
all 92 -20.7% -28.3% 37% 37% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 37% -25.6%
10% -35.2% 37% -32.7%
15% -41.4% 36% -39.2%
20% -47.2% 30% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$114 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$2,146
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 58
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage88d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 32¢ 34¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 31¢ 0¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $251 +$164 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $236 +$303 +128%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $262 −$257 -98%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 19 $161 +$190 +118%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $224 +$266 +119%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $303 +$306 +101%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $220 +$175 +79%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $108 −$106 -99%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $294 −$290 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $197 −$195 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $226 −$223 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $264 +$144 +54%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $153 +$384 +250%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $123 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $129 +$291 +226%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $205 −$202 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $36 +$72 +203%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $181 −$180 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $97 −$96 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $130 −$127 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $182 −$180 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $74 +$108 +145%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $118 −$116 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $63 +$55 +88%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$32 +103%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $180 −$150 -83%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $99 −$97 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $60 −$59 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $141 −$139 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $66 +$75 +114%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $38 +$27 +71%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $53 −$53 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $98 −$98 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $113 −$111 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $144 +$67 +46%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $98 +$144 +147%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $213 +$235 +110%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $74 +$156 +212%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $50 +$60 +121%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $28 −$27 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $52 −$29 -56%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $36 −$35 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $126 −$121 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $158 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $415 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $539 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $192 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $236 2h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $59 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $204 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 36¢ $262 7h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL 9z Team 100¢ $351 21h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 45¢ $161 25h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 47¢ $0 25h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 47¢ $2 25h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 46¢ $153 25h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 42¢ $4 25h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 42¢ $4 25h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 42¢ $29 25h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 42¢ $12 25h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 42¢ $9 25h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 42¢ $11 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $609 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $303 28h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $395 28h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $220 29h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $108 3d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 58¢ $294 3d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 67¢ $197 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $226 3d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $407 3d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 64¢ $264 3d
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 28¢ $153 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.62 · official $284.62 · 168 history records