Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:29:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08e6…fa57 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$37 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%13W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% +$41
other 23% +$13
crypto 23% +$1
world 16% +$2
tech 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 13 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$555
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses13 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage97d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $543 $555 +$11 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $545 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 31? Jun 01 $516 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 27 $545 +$1 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May May 19 $535 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 8? May 09 $540 +$1 +0%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $245 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13 Apr 22 $543 +$2 +0%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $535 +$8 +2%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 04 $531 +$4 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $531 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $504 +$27 +5%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 13 $501 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $548 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $545 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $516 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $545 23d
Will DeepSeek have the second highest estimated revenue for May 11–May BUY No 100¢ $535 35d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $540 42d
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $245 50d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 50d
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13 BUY No 100¢ $543 62d
Thunder vs. Clippers BUY Thunder 98¢ $535 69d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 99¢ $531 75d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $531 85d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 95¢ $504 90d
Suns vs. Pacers BUY Suns 100¢ $501 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.52 · official $554.52 (match) · 30 history records