Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08e4…e173 other 493 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,306 (+1%) realized +$1,439 · open −$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%218W / 266L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$474per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$530
7 days−$663
14 days−$427
30 days−$678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$1,762
other 5% −$1,230
sports 1% +$109
world 0% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -12.5% -20.8% 55% 34% -13.4%
≤30d 381 -19.3% -27.0% 39% 25% -10.2%
≤90d 484 -10.4% -19.0% 45% 27% -9.3%
all 484 -10.4% -19.0% 45% 27% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 27% -9.3%
10% -26.7% 20% -17.9%
15% -33.8% 15% -25.9%
20% -40.3% 12% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$15 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$487
Realized+$1,439
Unrealized−$133
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses218 / 266
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions9
Markets (closed)484 / 493
History coverage54d
Avg bet$474
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 484 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 69¢ 62¢ $300 $271 −$29 (-10%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 4¢ $110 $24 −$86 (-78%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $603 −$429 -71%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$42 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $302 +$22 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$15 -72%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $122 +$31 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $104 +$16 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,507 +$51 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 +$9 +8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $274 −$173 -63%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $391 −$164 -42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $502 −$165 -33%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $103 +$6 +6%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$20 +193%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $206 +$48 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $704 +$26 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,604 +$89 +2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $207 −$110 -53%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$29 +28%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 −$45 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $52 −$42 -82%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $52 +$48 +92%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$15 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $206 +$55 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $152 +$20 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $103 +$23 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4,406 +$65 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $50 $0 -1%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $3,511 +$78 +2%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +240%
Will Central African Republic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 +$3 +142%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 +$34 +112%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +212%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $88 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 69¢ $306 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $127 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $173 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 8h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 95¢ $143 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $323 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $301 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $152 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 59¢ $120 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 48¢ $104 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $2,140 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $2,104 33h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 94¢ $418 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $110 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $487.37 · official $487.37 (match) · 1062 history records