Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
08 0x08e3…328d sports 100 markets active 6h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$146 (+25%) realized +$145 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%19W / 68L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$167
other 30% +$17
world 7% −$39
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +17.4% +6.2% 22% 22% +12.7%
≤30d 87 +17.4% +6.2% 22% 22% +12.7%
≤90d 87 +17.4% +6.2% 22% 22% +12.7%
all 87 +17.4% +6.2% 22% 22% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.2% 22% +12.7%
10% ← realistic here -3.9% 21% +1.9%
15% -13.2% 21% -7.9%
20% -21.7% 21% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$5 · ×5.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$145
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses19 / 68
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)87 / 100
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+183%)
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$25 +124%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$34 +165%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$26 +64%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 +$53 +1288%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$25 +250%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$10 +65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -93%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -68%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 +$10 +510%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 +$27 +2598%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$8 -78%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $4 +$24 +589%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 9h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $20 9h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? AND Jordan to score first vs. Au BUY 13¢ $5 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $20 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $67 12h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $9 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 14h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in BUY 4¢ $2 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $40 22h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 26h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.13 · official $14.13 (match) · 198 history records