Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08e2…7584 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$114 (-13%) realized −$107 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$149
14 days−$149
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$49
other 40% −$86
sports 20% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -13.4% -21.6% 18% 9% -25.9%
≤30d 11 -13.4% -21.6% 18% 9% -25.9%
≤90d 15 -9.8% -18.4% 20% 7% -25.5%
all 15 -9.8% -18.4% 20% 7% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 7% -25.5%
10% -26.2% 0% -32.6%
15% -33.4% 0% -39.1%
20% -39.9% 0% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage81d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 65¢ 24¢ $10 $4 −$7 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $256 −$95 -37%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $54 −$8 -14%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $29 −$4 -15%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $27 −$5 -20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $74 +$15 +21%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 $0 -1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$2 -11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $323 −$49 -15%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 10 $16 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? Apr 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 01 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $84 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $74 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $135 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $116 4h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 15¢ $1 6h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 28¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 38¢ $14 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 38¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 41¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 41¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 41¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 41¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 41¢ $14 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 41¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $16 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $4 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $17 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $11 9h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 54¢ $21 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 54¢ $4 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $4 11h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $25 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.73 · official $3.73 (match) · 173 history records