Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:00:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08e2…1371 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$55 (+6%) realized +$56 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.9% -6.0% 69% 62% +4.1%
≤30d 13 +3.9% -6.0% 69% 62% +4.1%
≤90d 13 +3.9% -6.0% 69% 62% +4.1%
all 13 +3.9% -6.0% 69% 62% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 62% +4.1%
10% -15.0% 54% -5.9%
15% -23.2% 46% -15.0%
20% -30.7% 23% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$39 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals No 70¢ 69¢ $203 $201 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 27 $151 +$54 +36%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $72 +$78 +109%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 26 $62 +$11 +17%
Enner Valencia: 1+ assists Jun 25 $47 +$3 +7%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $7 +$3 +38%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 25 $77 −$69 -89%
Deniz Undav: 1+ shots Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 24 $75 +$25 +33%
Jonathan David: 1+ shots Jun 24 $19 −$19 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $78 +$42 +54%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $42 +$42 +100%
Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goals Jun 23 $8 +$3 +42%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals Jun 23 $60 −$57 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $18 1h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $12 1h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $34 1h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $45 1h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $9 1h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $11 1h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $23 1h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $2 1h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $23 1h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $22 1h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $2 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists SELL No 100¢ $205 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY No 73¢ $151 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $72 23h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $62 26h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $7 31h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists SELL No 8¢ $8 31h
Deniz Undav: 1+ shots BUY No 40¢ $10 32h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY No 77¢ $23 32h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY No 77¢ $50 32h
Enner Valencia: 1+ assists BUY No 93¢ $47 32h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY No 77¢ $3 32h
Jonathan David: 1+ shots BUY No 34¢ $19 2d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $6 2d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $9 2d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $60 2d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $5 3d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $73 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 50¢ $0 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 50¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.48 · official $201.51 (match) · 45 history records