Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

08
0x08e1…5b69
politics · 49 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage262d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 0 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $74 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $59 −$3 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $70 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $68 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $8 +$3 +42%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $4 +$2 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $65 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 +4%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $10 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Oct 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $14 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 06 $2 $0 -3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025? Oct 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 24 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$5
politics 29% $0
other 16% −$3
sports 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $75 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $74 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $56 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $59 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $70 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $70 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $16 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $40 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $26 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $68 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $36 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $7 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $14 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $45 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $1 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.7% -4.3% 57% 14% -8.8%
≤30d 10 +8.8% -1.5% 70% 20% -8.4%
≤90d 10 +8.8% -1.5% 70% 20% -8.4%
all 49 +1.4% -8.3% 43% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 4% -9.3%
10% -17.1% 4% -18.0%
15% -25.1% 4% -25.9%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 305 history records