Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:59:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
08 0x08e0…194b sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 233d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$197 (-37%) realized −$181 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 233d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$215
other 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -155% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$199 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$181
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 5
History coverage233d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 82¢ 100¢ $57 $69 +$12 (+22%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 40¢ 12¢ $40 $11 −$28 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $327 −$199 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $57 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 40¢ $20 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 46¢ $51 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 39¢ $51 5h
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY Anyones Legend 65¢ $128 233d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) SELL Anyones Legend 36¢ $128 233d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY Anyones Legend 56¢ $199 233d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.98 · official $180.98 · 8 history records