Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08e0…bfdf sports 889 markets active 2h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,988 (-4%) realized −$2,984 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%435W / 450L
Whale WR19%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 21% −$2,598
crypto 19% +$1,277
other 16% −$1,187
world 14% −$125
culture 11% −$439
politics 9% −$145
finance 7% −$73
economics 3% −$24
tech 0% −$13
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 31 -16.9% -24.8% 19% 16% -15.8%
≤90d 398 -9.5% -18.1% 46% 39% -13.6%
all 885 -6.3% -15.2% 49% 38% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 38% -15.0%
10% -23.3% 29% -23.1%
15% -30.7% 23% -30.5%
20% -37.5% 19% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 19% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$21 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$2,984
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses435 / 450
Whale WR (big bets)19%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)885 / 889
History coverage305d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 885 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 13¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 216 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $107 −$4 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $211 −$120 -57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $89 +$51 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $66 −$50 -76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $162 −$5 -3%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $20 $0 -2%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 11 $87 −$1 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 11 $16 −$1 -5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $160 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $15 −$2 -11%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $57 −$8 -14%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $178 −$10 -5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $46 −$2 -5%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $113 −$12 -11%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $5 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2 $0 -2%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 03 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election Jun 03 $5 +$1 +26%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $405 −$22 -6%
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? Jun 03 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Jun 03 $5 +$1 +27%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary Jun 02 $45 −$22 -48%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $484 −$3 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $134 −$11 -8%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $20 +$8 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $484 +$14 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $1,451 −$71 -5%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? May 29 $339 −$17 -5%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Ser May 27 $5 $0 -8%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series May 27 $5 $0 -8%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $262 −$2 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 27 $2 $0 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? May 27 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $142 −$6 -4%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $31 +$8 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $49 −$48 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $57 −$56 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 27 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1,763 −$64 -4%
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award? May 27 $10 $0 -5%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? AND Will United States win on 2026-0 BUY $50 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 31¢ $82 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 64¢ $84 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $87 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 25¢ $86 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 63¢ $20 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 16d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 16d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 17d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 68¢ $107 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $31 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 18d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $20 18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 18d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $49 18d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 52¢ $15 18d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 50¢ $27 18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.49 · official $107.08 · 3201 history records