trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 6 | +6.4% | -3.7% | 67% | 50% | -8.6% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -29.5% | -36.2% | 44% | 38% | +5.3% |
| all | 16 | -29.5% | -36.2% | 44% | 38% | +5.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -36.2% | 38% | +5.3% |
| 10% | -42.3% | 25% | -4.8% |
| 15% | -47.9% | 6% | -14.0% |
| 20% | -53.0% | 6% | -22.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 68¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 51¢ | 30¢ | $147 | $86 | −$61 (-41%) |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 24¢ | 21¢ | $22 | $19 | −$3 (-14%) |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $6 | $5 | −$1 (-23%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? | Jun 14 | $29 | −$6 | -22% |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$2 | +32% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on | Jun 08 | $138 | −$52 | -38% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 08 | $253 | +$53 | +21% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET | Jun 06 | $26 | +$3 | +10% |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 06 | $19 | +$7 | +35% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap | May 27 | $463 | +$75 | +16% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 20 | $45 | +$12 | +27% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | May 20 | $204 | +$140 | +69% |
| UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C | May 10 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET | May 08 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |
| Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | May 08 | $3 | −$1 | -22% |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | May 06 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET | Apr 15 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET | Apr 14 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET | Apr 14 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |