Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:51:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08dd…5fb2 world 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 391d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-1%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%34W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$16
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$21
politics 28% −$40
other 25% +$6
sports 11% −$1
finance 1% −$3
economics 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 28 -1.9% -11.3% 14% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 36 -1.6% -11.0% 22% 0% -10.0%
all 104 -1.8% -11.2% 33% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -10.1%
10% -19.7% 1% -18.7%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

391d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses34 / 70
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage391d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $71 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $123 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $248 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $402 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $124 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $124 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $124 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $122 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $125 −$16 -13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $160 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 06 $6 −$2 -29%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $140 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $167 −$2 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $164 −$3 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $150 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $150 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $150 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $138 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $141 −$3 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $156 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $16 −$1 -8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $143 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $546 +$1 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $337 +$2 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $2,214 −$33 -2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $53 −$2 -4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $1,172 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $325 +$6 +2%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Feb 01 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 14 $6 +$1 +25%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 02 $7 $0 +3%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 23 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $71 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $71 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $66 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $58 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $123 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $75 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $48 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $124 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $82 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $124 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $30 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $61 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $124 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $111 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $13 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $107 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $17 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $80 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $125 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $125 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $124 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $124 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $124 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $124 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $122 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $109 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 396 history records