Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08dc…32be crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$417 (-27%) realized −$411 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$532
other 17% +$135
sports 5% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -38.6% -44.4% 33% 33% -33.1%
≤30d 6 -38.6% -44.4% 33% 33% -33.1%
≤90d 42 -24.8% -32.0% 36% 36% -35.2%
all 42 -24.8% -32.0% 36% 36% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 36% -35.2%
10% -38.5% 33% -41.4%
15% -44.4% 31% -47.0%
20% -49.9% 31% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$37 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$411
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage64d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $27 $21 −$6 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 +$11 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$26 +101%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 04 $88 −$85 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 04 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 04 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 04 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $64 +$153 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 20 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 20 $60 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 20 $30 +$70 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 20 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $67 +$58 +86%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears Apr 18 $34 −$34 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 18 $40 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 18 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 17 $144 −$139 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 17 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 17 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 17 $30 +$22 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 17 $100 +$71 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 17 $70 −$67 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 17 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 17 $30 +$59 +195%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Doosan Bears Apr 17 $20 +$23 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 17 $20 +$31 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 17 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 17 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 17 $30 +$40 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $27 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 55¢ $21 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 47d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 47d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 29¢ $64 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $20 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $50 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $20 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $100 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.21 · official $21.21 (match) · 76 history records