Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
08 0x08db…a1cc crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$81 (-13%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$80
crypto 15% $0
politics 10% −$4
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -4.9% -14.0% 60% 0% -23.8%
all 12 -4.1% -13.2% 33% 0% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -22.0%
10% -21.5% 0% -29.5%
15% -29.1% 0% -36.3%
20% -36.1% 0% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$21 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage120d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $106 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 08 $320 −$80 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 3? Apr 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $21 −$3 -14%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $106 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $106 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $31 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $0 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $36 52d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $14 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $41 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $39 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $42 66d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $12 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $108 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $108 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 94d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 100d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $14 110d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $14 114d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 115d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $5 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $7 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $5 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $5 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $7 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records