Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:04:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
08 0x08db…849f sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$375 (-13%) realized −$339 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$498
other 22% −$505
crypto 16% −$430
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-46.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -40.5% -46.2% 33% 33% -26.1%
≤30d 6 -40.5% -46.2% 33% 33% -26.1%
≤90d 6 -40.5% -46.2% 33% 33% -26.1%
all 6 -40.5% -46.2% 33% 33% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.2% 33% -26.1%
10% -51.3% 33% -33.1%
15% -56.0% 33% -39.6%
20% -60.3% 33% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$394 vs −$297 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$560
Realized−$339
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 43¢ 40¢ $500 $459 −$41 (-8%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $96 $101 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $437 −$430 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $210 −$210 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $496 +$334 +67%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $507 +$454 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $99 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $509 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $437 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $305 17h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $496 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $210 26h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $250 26h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $507 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $560.10 · official $560.10 (match) · 12 history records