Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:01:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08da…58ad crypto 1433 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,461 (-8%) realized −$1,461 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%687W / 746L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day60.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$508
7 days−$205
14 days−$261
30 days−$1,832
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 427 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 51% -13.4%
≤30d 1055 -10.3% -18.8% 48% 47% -22.9%
≤90d 1433 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 47% -20.6%
all 1433 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 47% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 47% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 45% -28.2%
15% -33.4% 41% -35.2%
20% -39.9% 30% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,461
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses687 / 746
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1433 / 1433
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day60.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1433 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$14 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$13 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $42 +$32 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$12 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$32 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$24 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$8 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$14 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$16 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $37 −$23 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$15 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$15 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$15 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$35 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$16 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$16 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$10 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$19 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$13 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$17 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$14 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$9 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$23 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$8 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$22 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$15 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$13 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$6 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $8 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $21 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $38 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $35 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $21 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records