Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08da…e56d world 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+1%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate46%27W / 32L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$45
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$54
other 33% −$1
economics 12% $0
politics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 33 +7.9% -2.4% 52% 3% -8.3%
≤90d 43 +6.3% -3.8% 53% 2% -8.6%
all 59 +4.4% -5.5% 46% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 2% -8.7%
10% -14.5% 2% -17.5%
15% -22.8% 2% -25.5%
20% -30.4% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.16 per $1 lost it wins $5.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses27 / 32
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage352d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $108 $108 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $135 +$5 +4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $314 −$5 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $138 −$2 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $70 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $113 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $96 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $280 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $176 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $140 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $153 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $227 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $113 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $14 +$35 +245%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $168 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $96 +$3 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $225 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $14 −$2 -17%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $118 +$3 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $198 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $85 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $27 +$2 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $111 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $11 +$1 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $106 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $93 +$5 +5%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $102 −$1 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $582 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $663 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $35 −$1 -4%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 07 $0 $0 -8%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $154 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $126 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $108 16m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $140 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $135 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $52 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $45 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $38 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $136 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $57 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $18 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $61 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $18 43h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $120 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $113 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $46 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $90 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $17 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $62 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $62 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $37 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.64 · official $107.64 (match) · 239 history records