Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08d9…69ff world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$29 (-2%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$4
other 22% −$1
politics 15% +$2
crypto 8% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 5% −$24
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.5% -11.8% 14% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 15 -1.2% -10.7% 7% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 15 -1.2% -10.7% 7% 0% -10.3%
all 53 -2.3% -11.6% 28% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -11.8%
10% -20.0% 0% -20.2%
15% -27.8% 0% -27.9%
20% -34.8% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage256d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $29 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $68 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $22 −$3 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $34 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $67 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $74 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 20 $11 $0 +3%
Trump out as President in 2025? Nov 20 $14 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 23 $2 $0 +1%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025? Oct 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $22 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 21 $8 $0 -1%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 21 $6 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Australia PM events on Oct Oct 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Oct 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $20 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Pope Francis be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Oct 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Oct 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $32 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $32 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $29 18h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $29 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $4 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $24 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $18 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $11 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $19 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $11 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $24 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $36 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $34 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $33 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $21 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $13 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 14d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 14d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records