Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08d7…5716 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%42W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$11
crypto 10% +$1
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses42 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage536d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? Apr 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? Jan 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 03 $63 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 04 $33 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 02 $24 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $5,541 −$11 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Cale Makar win the Hart Trophy? Apr 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian E Apr 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the second most seats in the next Ca Apr 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $430 - 435b on February 28? Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $61 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 100¢ $40 61d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 92d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $60 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $15 121d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $45 121d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 148d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 150d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $10 180d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? BUY No 100¢ $30 181d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $35 182d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $12 211d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 100¢ $63 212d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $23 241d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 99¢ $33 242d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $23 272d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $38 274d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus BUY Yes 100¢ $14 301d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $49 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $10 332d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $22 333d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 99¢ $38 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $24 362d
Solana all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $33 365d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 394d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 394d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5,530 413d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.06 · official $67.06 (match) · 112 history records