Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
08 0x08d6…198f other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$38 (+14%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$31
crypto 4% +$7
culture 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +10.0% -0.5% 83% 58% -0.6%
≤30d 12 +10.0% -0.5% 83% 58% -0.6%
≤90d 13 +14.1% +3.2% 85% 62% +3.0%
all 14 +14.9% +3.9% 86% 64% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 64% +3.4%
10% -6.0% 50% -6.5%
15% -15.1% 43% -15.5%
20% -23.4% 21% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage99d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$3 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 01 $20 +$13 +64%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $10 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $30 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 61¢ $20 98d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa SELL Yes 100¢ $12 99d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 80¢ $10 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records