Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08d5…8315 crypto 1295 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$334 (-8%) realized −$334 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%717W / 578L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day49.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$78
14 days−$1,178
30 days−$857
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$84
other 3% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 239 -7.0% -15.9% 51% 44% -14.4%
≤30d 877 -31.1% -37.7% 34% 32% -37.8%
≤90d 1295 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 47% -11.1%
all 1295 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 47% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 47% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 39% -19.6%
15% -27.1% 33% -27.3%
20% -34.3% 28% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$334
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses717 / 578
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1295 / 1295
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day49.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1295 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +163%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$4 -191%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$3 -190%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$8 -195%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$8 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$4 -191%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$6 -194%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +37%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$10 -198%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +143%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$3 -190%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$3 -190%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$3 -190%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$8 -195%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +88%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$10 -198%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +260%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records