Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
08 0x08d3…039d crypto 1441 markets active 4d ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$616 (-8%) realized −$616 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%854W / 586L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$8
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$708
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 50% -16.9%
≤30d 577 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 54% -17.1%
≤90d 1440 -5.1% -14.1% 59% 45% -18.0%
all 1440 -5.1% -14.1% 59% 45% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 45% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 41% -25.8%
15% -29.8% 40% -33.0%
20% -36.7% 35% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$616
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses854 / 586
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1440 / 1441
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1440 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $9 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $6 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.95 (match) · 3500 history records