Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
08 0x08d1…b7e0 weather 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate86%90W / 15L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$16
14 days+$4
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$19
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.2% -8.5% 86% 18% -6.4%
≤30d 63 +1.2% -8.5% 86% 14% -8.2%
≤90d 105 +2.8% -7.0% 86% 21% -8.1%
all 105 +2.8% -7.0% 86% 21% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 21% -8.1%
10% -15.9% 5% -16.9%
15% -24.0% 0% -24.9%
20% -31.4% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses90 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage66d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? No 97¢ 96¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $54 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $6 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$8 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $55 −$4 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $43 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $35 −$22 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $31 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $29 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $29 −$7 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $17 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $31 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $26 +$6 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $31 −$5 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 31? May 31 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 30? May 30 $26 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29? May 30 $24 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $20 +$2 +11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 27? May 27 $17 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 75¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $36 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $21 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $21 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $51 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $3 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $3 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 89¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.53 · official $59.53 (match) · 270 history records