Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08d0…006e world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+4%) realized +$68 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$57
sports 10% +$13
other 3% −$5
politics 1% +$2
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+62.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +79.8% +62.7% 44% 44% -3.5%
≤30d 9 +79.8% +62.7% 44% 44% -3.5%
≤90d 9 +79.8% +62.7% 44% 44% -3.5%
all 9 +79.8% +62.7% 44% 44% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +62.7% 44% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here +47.1% 44% -12.7%
15% +32.9% 44% -21.2%
20% +19.9% 44% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $120 $62 −$58 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +81%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $3 +$25 +820%
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $78 −$24 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9 +$5 +55%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 1h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 92¢ $28 1h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 9¢ $29 1h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 9¢ $25 1h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 34¢ $54 1h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 11h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 11h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 11h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $5 13h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 13h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 13h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 51¢ $38 13h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 25h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 25h
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 25h
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $9 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $3 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 48¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.96 · official $62.10 (match) · 27 history records