Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08d0…7155 other 262 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 247L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$28
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$36
sports 25% −$24
politics 9% −$8
culture 9% −$9
economics 7% −$10
world 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 62 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 262 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 262
History coverage137d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $736 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $547 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $164 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $383 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $377 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $152 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $186 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $238 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $471 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $133 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $205 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $311 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $512 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $473 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $751 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $849 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $158 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $125 $0 +0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $134 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $254 −$3 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $424 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $125 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $395 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $332 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $459 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $217 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $66 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $722 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $239 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 30 $386 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $297 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 3h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 7h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 9h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 13h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 14h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 22h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 24h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 25h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 27h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 31h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 32h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 35h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 36h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 37h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 39h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 39h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $6 41h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 42h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 44h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 46h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 46h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 47h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $60 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1439 history records