Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:13:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

08
0x08cf…dd3d
crypto · 189 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$18 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses81 / 97
Open positions11
Markets (closed)178 / 189
History coverage77d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 11 History 178 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 23 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 23 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 23 $1 $0 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 03 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 03 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 03 $1 +$2 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 03 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$24
other 4% $0
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -29.1% -35.8% 50% 42% -39.6%
≤90d 178 -11.6% -20.0% 46% 42% -17.4%
all 178 -11.6% -20.0% 46% 42% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 42% -17.4%
10% -27.7% 33% -25.3%
15% -34.6% 25% -32.5%
20% -41.1% 18% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.92 · official $10.92 (match) · 624 history records