Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
08 0x08cf…0ad7 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+9%) realized +$35 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -16.1% -24.1% 60% 60% +2.2%
≤30d 5 -16.1% -24.1% 60% 60% +2.2%
≤90d 5 -16.1% -24.1% 60% 60% +2.2%
all 5 -16.1% -24.1% 60% 60% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 60% +2.2%
10% -31.4% 40% -7.6%
15% -38.0% 40% -16.5%
20% -44.1% 20% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$27 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage7d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $128 $130 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $130 +$52 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $130 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $181 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $111 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.69 · official $129.69 (match) · 10 history records