trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $29,271 | $0 | −$29,271 (-100%) |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $2,387 | $0 | −$2,387 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Dec 04 | $1,006 | +$3,424 | +340% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Dec 04 | $3,709 | −$2,056 | -55% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 04 | $405 | −$135 | -33% |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Dec 04 | $741 | +$582 | +79% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Dec 04 | $18,589 | +$1,705 | +9% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Dec 03 | $23,335 | −$5,064 | -22% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 01 | $132,809 | −$124,603 | -94% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 01 | $659,957 | +$183,338 | +28% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 01 | $849,605 | +$344,793 | +41% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? | Dec 01 | $4,940 | +$132 | +3% |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | Nov 28 | $473,649 | −$28,582 | -6% |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Nov 28 | $38,924 | −$9,925 | -26% |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Nov 28 | $411,303 | +$1,103 | +0% |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Nov 25 | $9,783 | +$220 | +2% |
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch? | Nov 25 | $38,389 | +$1,365 | +4% |
| Fed Derivative: "No Change" or "25bp cut" favored on Monday? | Nov 24 | $19,963 | +$771 | +4% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Nov 21 | $57 | −$2,967 | -5208% |
| Panathinaikos vs. BC Dubai | Nov 21 | $6,300 | −$6,300 | -100% |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? | Nov 19 | $2,356 | +$148 | +6% |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Nov 18 | $10,084 | +$15,262 | +151% |
| Maduro out by November 30, 2025? | Nov 17 | $5,160 | +$210 | +4% |
| Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Nov 16 | $29,271 | −$29,271 | -100% |
| Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-14? | Nov 15 | $14 | +$20 | +146% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 23 | +12.2% | +1.5% | 61% | 26% | +1.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +1.5% | 26% | +1.8% |
| 10% | -8.2% | 26% | -7.9% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -17.1% | 22% | -16.8% |
| 20% | -25.2% | 17% | -25.0% |