Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5

score

08 0x08cd…f35f sports 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist

! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$3,130 (+27%) realized +$3,136 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip

Net edge+40%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate47%16W / 18L

Drawdown18%max

Avg bet$270per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$47est.

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$1,170now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$2,049

7 days+$2,049

14 days+$2,883

30 days+$2,908

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+40.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	32	+56.7%	+41.8%	44%	41%	+14.7%
≤30d	34	+55.3%	+40.5%	47%	44%	+15.1%
≤90d	34	+55.3%	+40.5%	47%	44%	+15.1%
all	34	+55.3%	+40.5%	47%	44%	+15.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+40.5%	44%	+15.1%
10%	+27.1%	44%	+4.1%
15%	+14.8%	41%	-6.0%
20%	+3.5%	29%	-15.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

6% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +55% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +104% → late +7% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$267 vs −$76 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage

Net worth$1,170

Realized+$3,136

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses16 / 18

Est. fees paid−$47

Open positions7

Markets (closed)34 / 43

History coverage72d

Avg bet$270

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown18%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 34 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	69¢	70¢	$350	$358	+$8 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$224	$210	−$14 (-6%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Netherlands	69¢	68¢	$200	$199	−$1 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Over	42¢	44¢	$150	$155	+$5 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	72¢	72¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-1%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	Croatia	39¢	38¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Colombia	37¢	36¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Jun 23	$27	−$23	-88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 23	$206	+$145	+70%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$21	−$20	-97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$359	−$350	-98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$72	−$70	-97%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 23	$159	−$155	-98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 23	$51	+$63	+124%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	Jun 23	$51	−$50	-98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria	Jun 23	$82	+$324	+396%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$153	+$253	+165%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	Jun 23	$20	+$85	+414%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$20	−$20	-98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Jun 23	$143	−$140	-98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres	Jun 23	$30	−$30	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Jun 23	$52	+$21	+40%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$20	−$20	-98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 23	$62	−$60	-98%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$390	+$186	+48%
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 23	$152	+$154	+101%
Spread: France (-3.5)	Jun 23	$61	−$60	-98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Jun 23	$81	−$80	-99%
Spread: France (-5.5)	Jun 22	$6	−$6	-97%
Spread: France (-4.5)	Jun 22	$72	−$70	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 22	$26	+$11	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 22	$104	−$104	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Jun 22	$103	−$103	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 22	$104	+$103	+99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 22	$205	+$103	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 22	$307	+$160	+52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$65	+$1,485	+2280%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World	Jun 22	$3,790	+$325	+9%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Jun 10	$2,979	+$834	+28%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Jun 01	$66	+$25	+37%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	BUY Croatia	39¢	$51	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$27	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$103	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$103	14m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	37¢	$51	55m
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	5¢	$21	1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	8¢	$206	1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	20¢	$154	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	7¢	$72	1h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	21¢	$5	1h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	30¢	$153	2h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5)	BUY Portugal	23¢	$51	5h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will	BUY	17¢	$154	6h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	44¢	$51	9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	62¢	$202	10h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	BUY Yes	19¢	$20	19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	21¢	$20	19h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	15¢	$41	19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	37¢	$153	19h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres	BUY Atlanta Braves	51¢	$30	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$52	20h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	40¢	$102	20h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	18¢	$20	21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	14¢	$62	21h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$206	21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Netherlands	69¢	$202	21h
Spread: France (-3.5)	BUY France	26¢	$10	22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	59¢	$81	22h
Spread: France (-5.5)	BUY France	3¢	$6	24h
Spread: France (-4.5)	BUY France	8¢	$21	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,169.81 · official $1,170.22 (match) · 81 history records