Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
08 0x08ca…ea14 politics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% +$2
other 36% $0
world 25% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 4 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -8.0%
all 9 +1.0% -8.6% 67% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage127d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 21 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H Mar 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next Mar 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats Mar 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? Feb 12 $110 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 11d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 22d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 25d
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 29d
Will Matej Tonin be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY Yes 1¢ $28 29d
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H SELL Yes 0¢ $38 92d
Will Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) win the most seats in the next H BUY Yes 0¢ $38 92d
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next SELL Yes 0¢ $36 96d
Will LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) win the most seats in the next BUY Yes 0¢ $36 96d
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats SELL Yes 0¢ $36 100d
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats BUY Yes 0¢ $36 100d
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? SELL Yes 0¢ $32 103d
Will AICO win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? BUY Yes 0¢ $32 103d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $34 127d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $35 127d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $38 127d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $38 127d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $38 127d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $38 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.88 · official $39.88 (match) · 23 history records