Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08ca…7895 other 30 markets active 17h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,734 (-32%) realized −$16,734 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 23L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,737per market
Trades / day46.3pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,765
7 days−$14,377
14 days−$18,513
30 days−$16,761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$14,185
sports 11% −$5,910
world 7% +$3,876
crypto 1% −$542
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-56.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -57.9% -61.9% 19% 19% -45.2%
≤30d 30 -51.7% -56.3% 23% 23% -38.6%
≤90d 30 -51.7% -56.3% 23% 23% -38.6%
all 30 -51.7% -56.3% 23% 23% -38.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.3% 23% -38.6%
10% -60.5% 23% -44.5%
15% ← realistic here -64.3% 23% -49.9%
20% -67.8% 23% -54.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$3,009) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -48% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
28.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,529 vs −$1,498 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,734
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage19d
Avg bet$1,737
Trades / day46.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6,141 −$6,141 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,009 −$3,009 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,724 +$3,876 +104%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,491 −$2,491 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,931 +$3,015 +156%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $1,599 −$1,599 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,698 −$2,698 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,593 −$4,593 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4,465 +$5,035 +113%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4,389 −$4,389 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,377 −$1,377 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $387 −$377 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $619 −$619 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $144 −$140 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,046 +$1,005 +96%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $486 −$474 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $542 −$542 -100%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1,297 +$911 +70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $581 +$812 +140%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,603 −$1,603 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $3,015 −$3,015 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $4,572 +$3,048 +67%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $1,296 −$1,296 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $116 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $9 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $1 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $1 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $4 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $1 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $6 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $11 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $9 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $8 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $0 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $26 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $4 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $8 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $8 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $8 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $2 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $1 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $3 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $1 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $120 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $1 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $13 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $0 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $7 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $12 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $7 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $75 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $4 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $4 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 890 history records