Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08c8…2848 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$52 (+4%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate75%18W / 6L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day308.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -6.1% -15.0% 75% 4% -7.1%
≤30d 24 -6.1% -15.0% 75% 4% -7.1%
≤90d 24 -6.1% -15.0% 75% 4% -7.1%
all 24 -6.1% -15.0% 75% 4% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover308.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 4% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 4% -16.0%
15% -30.6% 4% -24.1%
20% -37.4% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.22 per $1 lost it wins $2.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses18 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day308.0
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $65 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $67 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $65 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $94 −$26 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $69 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $67 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $54 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $66 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$32 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $68 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $65 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $129 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $13 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $13 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 331 history records