Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08c2…aa36 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$955 (-23%) realized −$948 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$17
30 days−$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$576
politics 10% −$207
other 8% −$106
crypto 5% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -31.3% -37.8% 50% 50% -6.3%
≤30d 8 -54.1% -58.5% 25% 12% -66.1%
≤90d 9 -40.1% -45.8% 33% 22% -34.9%
all 36 -16.2% -24.1% 47% 39% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 39% -33.4%
10% -31.4% 25% -39.7%
15% -38.0% 19% -45.6%
20% -44.1% 14% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$90 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$948
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 50
History coverage249d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 60¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $61 +$23 +37%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $21 +$1 +4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $77 −$77 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $192 −$190 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $101 −$14 -14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 31 $102 −$66 -65%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 23 $200 +$144 +72%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $50 +$205 +410%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 19 $286 −$286 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 19 $100 +$20 +20%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 18 $200 +$22 +11%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 16 $150 +$67 +45%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 14 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? Feb 12 $200 −$7 -4%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $46 +$1 +1%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $400 +$137 +34%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $28 +$18 +62%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $175 −$175 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $100 +$23 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 25 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $18 +$2 +11%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 25 $28 +$16 +56%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 24 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 23 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Oct 18 $100 +$19 +19%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Oct 18 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1) Oct 16 $100 +$8 +8%
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) Oct 16 $10 +$26 +257%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) Oct 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $101 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France BUY 4¢ $5 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Argent BUY 4¢ $5 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs BUY 5¢ $5 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- BUY 9¢ $5 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Aust BUY 7¢ $5 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Austri BUY 7¢ $5 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Austria v BUY 6¢ $5 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Argentina v BUY 6¢ $5 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France BUY 9¢ $5 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. No BUY 7¢ $5 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belg BUY 25¢ $20 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 67¢ $54 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 37¢ $31 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 23¢ $20 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 38¢ $30 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 37¢ $31 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 17¢ $20 13d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL JD Gaming 24¢ $10 14d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL JD Gaming 25¢ $10 14d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 12¢ $21 14d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 85¢ $77 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 11¢ $10 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $87 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 76¢ $181 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $36 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.90 · official $245.04 (match) · 84 history records