Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

08
0x08c0…b3ca
other · 14 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$130
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 4 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $15 +$7 +48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $15 $0 -2%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $32 −$13 -41%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $32 −$2 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $34 −$4 -13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 +$20 +127%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $34 −$26 -77%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $33 +$19 +57%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$19
sports 37% −$23
crypto 10% $0
world 4% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $22 38m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 41¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 35¢ $14 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 36¢ $15 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 11h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 14h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 35¢ $30 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $30 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $39 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $36 36h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 10¢ $8 38h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $34 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $34 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $34 46h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 77¢ $52 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $32 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $16 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $32 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1 3d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele SELL Yes 61¢ $1 3d
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.0% -6.9% 30% 30% -11.5%
≤30d 10 +3.0% -6.9% 30% 30% -11.5%
≤90d 10 +3.0% -6.9% 30% 30% -11.5%
all 10 +3.0% -6.9% 30% 30% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 30% -11.5%
10% -15.8% 30% -19.9%
15% -23.9% 30% -27.7%
20% -31.4% 20% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.14 · official $130.14 (match) · 27 history records