Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

08 0x08be…ffcd other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$139 (-21%) realized −$119 · open −$20

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip

Net edge-48%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$109per market

Trades / day6.1pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-45.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-40.1%	-45.8%	25%	25%	+12.7%
≤30d	4	-40.1%	-45.8%	25%	25%	+12.7%
≤90d	4	-40.1%	-45.8%	25%	25%	+12.7%
all	4	-40.1%	-45.8%	25%	25%	+12.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-45.8%	25%	+12.7%
10%	-51.0%	25%	+1.9%
15%	-55.8%	25%	-7.9%
20%	-60.1%	25%	-17.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -40% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$210 vs −$46 · ×4.54 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$335

Realized−$119

Unrealized−$20

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$109

Trades / day6.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	Under	48¢	46¢	$345	$327	−$18 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$150	+$210	+139%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$103	−$100	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$20	−$19	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	48¢	$350	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	100¢	$360	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	41¢	$150	4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$103	29h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	1¢	$20	29h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY Yes	3¢	$20	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.03 · official $335.03 (match) · 7 history records