Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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08 0x08be…bea8 crypto 1035 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized +$2 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%643W / 369L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day79.8pace
Fees−$463est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,431
7 days+$42
14 days−$1,258
30 days−$3,345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$439
crypto 41% −$1,947
other 11% +$1,688
world 0% +$144
tech 0% +$143
finance 0% −$65
politics 0% +$17
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 364 -4.3% -13.4% 60% 57% -9.4%
≤30d 732 -3.5% -12.7% 63% 59% -13.5%
≤90d 1012 -3.4% -12.6% 64% 58% -9.1%
all 1012 -3.4% -12.6% 64% 58% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 58% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 47% -17.8%
15% -28.6% 34% -25.7%
20% -35.6% 22% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$67 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$2,149
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses643 / 369
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$463
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1012 / 1035
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$98
Trades / day79.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1012 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 74¢ 78¢ $903 $954 +$51 (+6%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 56¢ 52¢ $241 $224 −$17 (-7%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 66¢ 46¢ $300 $212 −$88 (-29%)
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $101 $98 −$3 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 70¢ 100¢ $65 $93 +$28 (+42%)
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $75 $68 −$7 (-9%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 54¢ 56¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $31 $34 +$3 (+9%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 63¢ 64¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 72¢ 74¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 68¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 77¢ 53¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Under 63¢ 64¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? No 67¢ 78¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+17%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 52¢ 47¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General? Yes 77¢ 39¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-49%)
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$14 +35%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $207 +$96 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $423 −$423 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$28 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $126 +$14 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AND Jun 14 $15 +$29 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $153 +$64 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $308 +$166 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$38 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$2 +6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $403 +$71 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$16 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $202 +$92 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$13 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $65 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $205 +$110 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $136 +$18 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$33 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $229 +$83 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$33 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $77 +$34 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 23m
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 71¢ $76 25m
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $102 5h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $41 5h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $26 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $32 5h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $21 5h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $305 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $42 5h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $57 6h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $303 6h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $30 9h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 10h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 74¢ $605 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 81¢ $85 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,149.37 · official $2,131.71 (match) · 3500 history records