Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x08ba…391d crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,248 (-40%) realized −$1,171 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$298
7 days+$298
14 days+$298
30 days+$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$1,078
sports 30% +$270
other 13% −$161
world 1% −$1
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -27.4% -34.3% 50% 50% +17.5%
≤30d 6 -27.4% -34.3% 50% 50% +17.5%
≤90d 32 +54.9% +40.2% 31% 28% -38.1%
all 38 +45.4% +31.6% 26% 24% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.6% 24% -37.3%
10% +19.0% 24% -43.3%
15% +7.5% 21% -48.8%
20% -3.0% 18% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +138% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$60 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,171
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage151d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $877 +$253 +29%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 +$58 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 13 $312 −$302 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 13 $631 −$610 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 13 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 28 $62 −$19 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 28 $31 −$21 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 28 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 28 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 28 $15 +$12 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 28 $5 +$5 +95%
Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $70 −$41 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 22 $280 −$280 -100%
Will VCU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $30 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 22 $100 +$60 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 22 $10 +$147 +1471%
Miami vs. Indiana Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 22 $10 +$156 +1564%
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 22 $9 +$22 +232%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $2 $0 -6%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 15 $46 −$3 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 15 $15 −$1 -10%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jan 15 $15 $0 -3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,130 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 94¢ $159 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $33 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $877 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $101 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $17 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $258 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $258 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $259 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 113 history records