Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08b3…48a9 sports 1046 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,369 (+1%) realized +$2,372 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%497W / 547L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$1,108est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$1,027
14 days−$596
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$917
world 1% +$198
other 1% +$423
crypto 0% −$141
politics 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -6.7% -15.5% 29% 28% -30.0%
≤30d 187 +9.5% -0.9% 40% 35% -9.2%
≤90d 571 -0.8% -10.3% 44% 38% -12.6%
all 1044 +1.7% -8.0% 48% 42% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 42% -8.9%
10% -16.8% 36% -17.6%
15% -24.8% 30% -25.6%
20% -32.2% 23% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$88 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$2,372
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses497 / 547
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,108
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1044 / 1046
History coverage228d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1044 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $38 $35 −$3 (-8%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$78 +64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $36 +$6 +16%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$77 +751%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $233 +$79 +34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$92 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $153 +$132 +86%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$80 -78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $120 −$118 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $153 +$175 +114%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $133 −$132 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$81 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $86 +$47 +54%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 +$94 +1521%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $200 +$109 +54%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $164 −$24 -15%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $14 −$14 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$32 +197%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $18 +$87 +473%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO1) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 21m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $39 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $20 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $22 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $36 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $87 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 17¢ $20 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 16¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $311 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $233 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $285 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 50¢ $36 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.52 · official $64.52 (match) · 2958 history records