Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

08 0x08b1…99e1 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$30 (+14%) realized +$29 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate72%13W / 5L

Drawdown59%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day30.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+5.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+16.5%	+5.4%	72%	67%	+10.2%
≤30d	18	+16.5%	+5.4%	72%	67%	+10.2%
≤90d	18	+16.5%	+5.4%	72%	67%	+10.2%
all	18	+16.5%	+5.4%	72%	67%	+10.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover30.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+5.4%	67%	+10.2%
10% ← realistic here	-4.7%	44%	-0.4%
15%	-13.9%	39%	-10.0%
20%	-22.4%	33%	-18.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 44% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +27% → late +6% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$21

Realized+$29

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)72%

Wins / losses13 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day30.0

Drawdown59%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	24¢	26¢	$20	$21	+$1 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 28	$21	+$11	+53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$12	+112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$8	+84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 28	$8	−$8	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 28	$5	+$4	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 28	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 28	$10	−$10	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$1	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$2	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$2	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Jun 28	$11	+$26	+248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Jun 28	$20	+$3	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Jun 28	$10	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$3	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$8	+73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 28	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 27	$10	+$4	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$21	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$31	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$21	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$22	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$19	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	BUY Down	33¢	$8	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$9	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$10	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$10	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$10	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$37	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$11	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$23	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$10	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$10	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$10	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$14	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$10	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$18	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$10	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$10	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$10	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$5	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.25 · official $41.25 · 38 history records