Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
08 0x08af…bb75 crypto 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$10,017 (+105%) realized +$10,167 · open −$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%15W / 50L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$309
7 days+$388
14 days+$388
30 days+$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$10,468
crypto 28% −$1,111
other 8% −$178
sports 5% +$601
finance 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +44.9% +31.1% 50% 50% +40.8%
≤30d 8 +44.9% +31.1% 50% 50% +40.8%
≤90d 54 +49.2% +35.0% 28% 28% +21.2%
all 65 +24.0% +12.2% 23% 23% +20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.2% 23% +20.0%
10% +1.4% 22% +8.5%
15% -8.4% 18% -2.0%
20% -17.4% 17% -11.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +127% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +125% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$805 vs −$44 · ×18.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.56 per $1 lost it wins $5.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized+$10,167
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses15 / 50
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage114d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 48¢ $540 $390 −$150 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $106 −$2 -2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $106 +$75 +70%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $107 −$5 -5%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $106 +$200 +189%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $106 +$49 +46%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $53 +$92 +174%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $107 −$13 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $9 −$9 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1,173 +$127 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $3,151 +$1,028 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 17 $80 −$63 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 17 $15 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12PM ET Apr 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 17 $20 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? Apr 17 $25 −$24 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 19? Apr 17 $10 +$7 +71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $85 +$28 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9AM ET Apr 17 $90 +$11 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 17 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $10 +$9 +98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $29 +$18 +64%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 17 $40 −$2 -4%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $200 −$114 -57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $30 −$28 -93%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $27 −$7 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15? Apr 15 $20 −$15 -77%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $24 −$19 -79%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? Apr 14 $10 −$2 -19%
Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $25 −$15 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Apr 14 $15 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 14 $55 −$49 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 15? Apr 14 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 14 $21 −$17 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10PM ET Apr 14 $54 −$51 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 15? Apr 14 $20 −$3 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 19? Apr 14 $25 −$3 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 13 $100 −$25 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $20 −$18 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $25 −$17 -66%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 12 $1,000 −$166 -17%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 12 $10 +$187 +1916%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $584 −$584 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $784 −$659 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 12? Apr 10 $30 −$28 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $147 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $420 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $104 18h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $106 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $181 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $106 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $101 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $107 22h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $306 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $106 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $155 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $106 26h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $145 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $53 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 10¢ $93 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $107 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 53d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $173 53d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 55d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $40 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $13 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $25 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $9 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.19 · official $390.19 (match) · 176 history records