Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x08a7…3285 sports 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$90 (+3%) realized +$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%41W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$67
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$64
crypto 30% +$143
other 13% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 50% -12.8%
≤30d 62 +7.2% -3.0% 58% 56% -7.8%
≤90d 62 +7.2% -3.0% 58% 56% -7.8%
all 71 +8.1% -2.2% 58% 56% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 56% -2.3%
10% -11.5% 54% -11.7%
15% -20.1% 49% -20.2%
20% -27.9% 35% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$31 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses41 / 30
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage248d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $29 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $135 +$169 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 27 $186 +$165 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$9 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $93 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +29%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $171 −$50 -29%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $35 −$35 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25 Jun 26 $29 +$27 +91%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $30 +$13 +44%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $30 +$20 +67%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $60 +$31 +53%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $32 +$27 +83%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$36 +120%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 +$1 +3%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$5 +26%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $40 +$17 +42%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 −$26 -86%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $66 +$17 +25%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $61 +$40 +65%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $2 +$1 +60%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 21 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Jun 21 $10 +$33 +323%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $30 +$27 +90%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +40%
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$11 +38%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$15 +97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 +$13 +42%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $30 +$26 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $21 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $9 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $109 3h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 3h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 11¢ $13 3h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $71 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $34.42 · 158 history records