Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:23:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0898…9a5b other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$230 (-9%) realized −$204 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate34%32W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$133
14 days−$126
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$286
sports 3% −$11
world 2% +$4
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -71.7% -74.4% 12% 0% -75.4%
≤30d 15 +6.0% -4.1% 20% 13% -58.8%
≤90d 93 +8.4% -1.9% 34% 26% -20.3%
all 93 +8.4% -1.9% 34% 26% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 26% -20.3%
10% -11.3% 24% -27.9%
15% -19.9% 20% -34.9%
20% -27.7% 16% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$15 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses32 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)93 / 103
History coverage71d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 56¢ 56¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-32%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $27 $9 −$18 (-68%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $8 $6 −$3 (-33%)
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in July 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? Jun 28 $26 +$1 +6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $36 −$26 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $8 −$2 -26%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $28 −$15 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $11 +$39 +354%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $3 +$23 +768%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $60 −$35 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $128 −$128 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $61 −$53 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $36 −$34 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 24 $11 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $27 −$7 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $17 −$12 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $85 +$124 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $72 −$41 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $40 −$34 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $16 −$5 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $30 −$11 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $75 −$59 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $62 +$21 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $185 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 14 $45 −$5 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $26 +$7 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026? May 13 $7 −$6 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? May 13 $11 −$10 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in May 2026? May 13 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in May 2026? May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? May 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? May 13 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $3 +$4 +148%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $18 −$15 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $16 −$3 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $40 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $41 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 27h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 27h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $24 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 14¢ $40 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $36 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.52 · official $127.53 (match) · 543 history records