Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
08 0x0894…d819 other 265 markets active 0h ago coverage 366d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5,410 (+3%) realized +$4,734 · open +$676
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate75%188W / 63L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$722per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$7,035now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,158
7 days+$1,494
14 days+$3,046
30 days+$2,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$3,126
crypto 34% +$482
politics 9% +$932
world 8% +$1,057
sports 3% −$663
economics 2% +$6
culture 0% +$22
finance 0% −$50
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.1% -8.5% 73% 55% +10.1%
≤30d 53 +0.5% -9.1% 79% 34% -0.9%
≤90d 104 +15.7% +4.6% 69% 23% -5.5%
all 251 +7.7% -2.6% 75% 23% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 23% -7.4%
10% -11.9% 14% -16.2%
15% -20.4% 7% -24.3%
20% -28.2% 4% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$740) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$106 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

366d coverage
Net worth$7,035
Realized+$4,734
Unrealized+$676
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses188 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions14
Markets (closed)251 / 265
History coverage366d
Avg bet$722
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? No 85¢ 82¢ $2,125 $2,062 −$62 (-3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 61¢ 68¢ $1,379 $1,539 +$161 (+12%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 14¢ 39¢ $476 $1,332 +$856 (+180%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 46¢ 47¢ $810 $823 +$13 (+2%)
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 42¢ 44¢ $382 $400 +$18 (+5%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $325 $328 +$4 (+1%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $171 $169 −$2 (-1%)
Will Aster reach $1.40 by December 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 38¢ $183 $112 −$70 (-39%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 56¢ 40¢ $140 $99 −$41 (-29%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 39¢ 40¢ $79 $81 +$2 (+3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 36¢ 36¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 8¢ $105 $26 −$79 (-75%)
Will Aster reach $1.60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 17¢ $55 $17 −$38 (-69%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $98 $14 −$84 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $3,804 +$352 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 24 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $270 +$230 +85%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $810 +$690 +85%
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $574 +$124 +22%
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 24 $492 +$106 +22%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $125 +$12 +10%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 19 $182 −$26 -14%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $243 +$33 +14%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $370 +$130 +35%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $555 +$125 +22%
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $845 +$68 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1,036 +$84 +8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $228 +$610 +268%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,287 +$890 +69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $250 −$42 -17%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +35%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 13 $200 +$37 +18%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 09 $246 −$168 -68%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $156 +$17 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $390 +$30 +8%
Will Trump say "Corn" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Beef" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Pig" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $144 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $168 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "MIT" or "Massachusetts Institute of Technology" during Jun 06 $205 +$3 +1%
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $300 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $300 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Child" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $300 $0 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $2,340 −$1,130 -48%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2 Jun 05 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $77 +$23 +30%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 05 $155 +$29 +19%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 04 $79 +$4 +5%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $249 +$3 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $385 +$115 +30%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $496 +$4 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $418 +$116 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $810 +$190 +24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $553 −$75 -14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? May 30 $735 +$58 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? May 29 $356 +$34 +10%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Cabinet meetin May 28 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $1 2m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $1 4m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $5 34m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $1 53m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $1 55m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $23 1h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 45¢ $56 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $140 7h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 8h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $176 8h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 8h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 57¢ $11 8h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 57¢ $103 8h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 57¢ $57 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $968 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $54 11h
Over $5M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 41¢ $342 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $107 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $447 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $354 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $92 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $5 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $9 12h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 44h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $690 2d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 100¢ $449 2d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 100¢ $150 2d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 48¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,034.73 · official $7,034.76 (match) · 1967 history records