Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0894…0e10 world 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$7
other 22% +$1
sports 19% −$2
politics 11% −$1
finance 3% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 24 +21.6% +10.0% 42% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 65 +7.8% -2.5% 45% 2% -9.8%
all 84 +5.6% -4.5% 40% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 1% -9.8%
10% -13.6% 1% -18.4%
15% -22.0% 1% -26.3%
20% -29.6% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 50
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage331d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 -5%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $90 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $2 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $61 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 23 $72 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $80 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $37 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $38 −$5 -13%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $76 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $81 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $38 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 02 $45 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $122 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $120 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $4 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $14 −$2 -11%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $13 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $93 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Apr 14 $50 −$3 -7%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $50 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $47 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $19 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $10 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $38 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $35 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $29 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 25h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $4 30h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $13 30h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $18 30h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $11 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $17 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $35 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $28 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.97 · official $34.72 (match) · 324 history records