Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0892…7c15 crypto 605 markets active 4h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$231 (+2%) realized +$231 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%331W / 274L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$123
14 days−$93
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$132
other 2% −$2
sports 1% −$10
weather 0% −$9
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +3.2% -6.6% 62% 46% -15.0%
≤30d 322 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 47% -10.4%
≤90d 605 -2.8% -12.1% 55% 45% -8.5%
all 605 -2.8% -12.1% 55% 45% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 45% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 38% -17.2%
15% -28.2% 33% -25.2%
20% -35.2% 27% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$231
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses331 / 274
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)605 / 605
History coverage60d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 605 Trades
no open positions (244 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$7 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$8 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$27 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $54 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$12 +279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$12 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2581 history records