Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
08 0x0890…0646 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$233 (+3%) realized +$317 · open −$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$528per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,854now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$435
14 days+$435
30 days+$548
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +57.9% +42.8% 100% 100% +29.3%
≤30d 5 +28.7% +16.5% 80% 80% +20.5%
≤90d 12 +7.2% -3.0% 67% 67% -2.2%
all 12 +7.2% -3.0% 67% 67% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 67% -2.2%
10% -12.3% 58% -11.5%
15% -20.7% 58% -20.1%
20% -28.5% 50% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$285 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$2,854
Realized+$317
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage58d
Avg bet$528
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group C Alpha Dominion Nation 51¢ 50¢ $2,937 $2,854 −$84 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $877 +$358 +41%
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $127 +$68 +54%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 25 $195 −$195 -100%
Counter-Strike: PURE vs BOJONG (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Se May 19 $440 +$309 +70%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Gr Apr 21 $500 −$491 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Apr 21 $261 −$257 -98%
Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 Winner Apr 21 $438 +$323 +74%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $395 +$43 +11%
Counter-Strike: Nebula In Chaox vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - Exort Series Mai Apr 20 $198 +$197 +100%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs QUINTESSÊNCIA (BO1) - Gamers Clu Apr 20 $198 −$196 -99%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Seri Apr 20 $249 +$147 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 51¢ $259 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 51¢ $2,587 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 50¢ $110 1h
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 50¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 77¢ $154 3d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 70¢ $49 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 70¢ $182 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 70¢ $105 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 70¢ $182 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 70¢ $182 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Noir Verse 67¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Noir Verse 41¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 65¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 65¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 65¢ $16 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner BUY Noir Verse 65¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner BUY Noir Verse 65¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner BUY Noir Verse 65¢ $13 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner BUY Noir Verse 65¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner BUY Noir Verse 65¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner BUY Noir Verse 65¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner BUY Noir Verse 65¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner BUY Noir Verse 65¢ $93 4d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY ex-RUBY 45¢ $42 22d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY ex-RUBY 45¢ $9 22d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series BUY ex-RUBY 45¢ $144 22d
Counter-Strike: PURE vs BOJONG (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Se SELL BOJONG 100¢ $749 28d
Counter-Strike: PURE vs BOJONG (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Se BUY BOJONG 50¢ $29 28d
Counter-Strike: PURE vs BOJONG (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Se BUY BOJONG 50¢ $7 28d
Counter-Strike: PURE vs BOJONG (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Se BUY BOJONG 66¢ $178 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,853.67 · official $2,853.67 (match) · 53 history records