Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

08 0x088f…2037 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$25 (+12%) realized +$25 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%6W / 3L

Drawdown62%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-25.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-17.3%	-25.2%	67%	67%	+2.6%
≤30d	9	-17.3%	-25.2%	67%	67%	+2.6%
≤90d	9	-17.3%	-25.2%	67%	67%	+2.6%
all	9	-17.3%	-25.2%	67%	67%	+2.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.2%	67%	+2.6%
10%	-32.4%	22%	-7.2%
15%	-38.9%	11%	-16.2%
20%	-44.9%	11%	-24.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 52% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$25

Realized+$25

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses6 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage6d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown62%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	No	89¢	90¢	$25	$25	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$35	+$5	+14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$30	+$5	+17%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$30	+$5	+17%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$27	+$6	+21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$28	+$15	+52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$14	+$3	+23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	89¢	$25	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	87¢	$35	9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	85¢	$30	32h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	SELL No	100¢	$35	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	85¢	$30	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	88¢	$32	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$27	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$43	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$28	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$17	4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$14	4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	90¢	$5	6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$5	6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$5	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.14 · official $25.14 (match) · 17 history records