Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x088e…bc56 other 464 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$45,164 (-8%) realized −$47,800 · open +$2,636
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate58%257W / 189L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,236per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$160est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$14,568now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,726
7 days+$3,446
14 days+$3,446
30 days+$1,503
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$12,738
sports 42% −$30,042
tech 2% +$98
politics 0% −$643
crypto 0% +$29
economics 0% +$16
finance 0% +$175
culture 0% +$127
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +10.9% +0.3% 39% 26% +13.4%
≤30d 33 +2.6% -7.2% 45% 30% -3.9%
≤90d 213 -59.9% -63.8% 22% 9% -30.2%
all 446 -16.4% -24.3% 58% 17% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.3% 17% -16.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 15% -24.8%
15% -38.2% 13% -32.1%
20% -44.2% 10% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$1,092) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$399 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$14,568
Realized−$47,800
Unrealized+$2,636
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses257 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions18
Markets (closed)446 / 464
History coverage234d
Avg bet$1,236
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 55¢ 86¢ $4,119 $6,381 +$2,261 (+55%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 82¢ $2,698 $2,542 −$156 (-6%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 42¢ $1,026 $1,670 +$644 (+63%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 24¢ $1,708 $1,308 −$400 (-23%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 92¢ $758 $1,110 +$352 (+46%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 80¢ 80¢ $327 $327 +$1 (+0%)
Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 94¢ 94¢ $305 $303 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 28¢ $174 $155 −$20 (-11%)
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 83¢ 84¢ $139 $142 +$3 (+2%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 86¢ $121 $127 +$7 (+5%)
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $110 $112 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 96¢ $81 $96 +$14 (+18%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 76¢ $82 $89 +$6 (+8%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 27¢ 14¢ $162 $87 −$75 (-46%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $61 $67 +$6 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $52 $41 −$11 (-21%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 28¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+38%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+158%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,025 +$2,947 +146%
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $2,279 +$35 +2%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $117 −$1 -1%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $2,329 −$151 -6%
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $959 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,365 +$25 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,281 +$147 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,378 +$520 +38%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $67 −$65 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$20 -65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $578 +$374 +65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 +$91 +1011%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -82%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $217 −$217 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $620 +$10 +2%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $93 +$27 +29%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,458 +$1,057 +24%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5,011 −$2,936 -59%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $11 $0 +2%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $225 in May? May 30 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $220 in May? May 30 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 30 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $230 in May? May 30 $367 +$124 +34%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 in May? May 30 $70 +$30 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $102 +$94 +92%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $4,044 +$4 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $2,307 +$459 +20%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $6,466 −$20 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 05 $497 −$5 -1%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 05 $54 −$54 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 05 $1,488 −$1,488 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $95 −$44 -47%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $200 +$17 +8%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 01 $992 +$55 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $1,496 −$1,070 -72%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 01 $468 +$19 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $9 +$2 +24%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 29 $174 +$41 +23%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 24 $2 $0 -0%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-21? Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $57 59m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $2,277 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 74¢ $111 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $2,057 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $2,025 3h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 73¢ $1,266 6h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 81¢ $117 6h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 68¢ $2,178 6h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 77¢ $956 6h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $7 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $8 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $13 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $16 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $20 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $25 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $8 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $12 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $15 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $7 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $9 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $8 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $13 7h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 73¢ $10 7h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $7 8h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $9 8h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $14 8h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 79¢ $11 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,567.87 · official $14,567.87 (match) · 3380 history records