Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:36:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0888…19e0 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+8%) realized +$15 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$15
crypto 5% +$1
sports 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -24.0% -31.3% 27% 27% -4.6%
≤30d 45 -24.0% -31.3% 27% 27% -4.6%
≤90d 45 -24.0% -31.3% 27% 27% -4.6%
all 45 -24.0% -31.3% 27% 27% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.3% 27% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 27% -13.8%
15% -43.8% 24% -22.1%
20% -49.3% 22% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 +$8 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +66%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -33%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $4 +$22 +544%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$14 +287%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $7 +$4 +55%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -91%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $2 $0 -21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 +$5 +273%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 $0 +25%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -61%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +143%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -91%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -72%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -85%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -85%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 +$30 +202%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $12 −$8 -66%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +86%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +55%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 17h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 20h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 93¢ $8 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.28 · official $9.28 (match) · 83 history records