Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
08 0x0883…fc7a crypto 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate52%61W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$13
14 days+$19
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$6
other 19% +$7
sports 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.1% -9.7% 64% 25% -8.9%
≤30d 51 +10.1% -0.4% 71% 22% -9.0%
≤90d 117 +3.7% -6.2% 52% 26% -9.4%
all 117 +3.7% -6.2% 52% 26% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 26% -9.4%
10% -15.1% 22% -18.1%
15% -23.3% 21% -26.0%
20% -30.9% 15% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses61 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)117 / 134
History coverage34d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $415 +$5 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$4 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $95 $0 +0%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $310 +$4 +1%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -92%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $292 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $284 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $198 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 8? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 8? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $181 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$4 +529%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 03 $1 +$2 +145%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $171 −$6 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $7 +$9 +128%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? May 29 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? May 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 27? May 27 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 25 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 22 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 20? May 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 19 $78 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $95 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.17 · official $71.16 (match) · 369 history records