Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

08 0x0882…99c0 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$65 (+6%) realized +$67 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +81% what you keep after slip

Net edge+81%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate31%5W / 11L

Drawdown68%max

Avg bet$58per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit28%portable

Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$102

7 days+$104

14 days+$104

30 days+$104

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+81.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+122.4%	+101.2%	36%	29%	+2.3%
≤30d	14	+122.4%	+101.2%	36%	29%	+2.3%
≤90d	16	+100.5%	+81.4%	31%	25%	-5.6%
all	16	+100.5%	+81.4%	31%	25%	-5.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+81.4%	25%	-5.6%
10%	+64.0%	25%	-14.7%
15%	+48.2%	25%	-22.9%
20%	+33.6%	25%	-30.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +100% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -40% → late +240% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$52 vs −$19 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.24 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage

Net worth$168

Realized+$67

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)31%

Wins / losses5 / 11

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage112d

Avg bet$58

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown68%

Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	44¢	44¢	$130	$129	−$1 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$40	$39	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$102	−$81	-79%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$122	−$7	-6%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	Jun 25	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$102	+$21	+20%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	Jun 25	$20	+$11	+54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$151	+$14	+9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$114	+$165	+146%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 22	$10	−$4	-41%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 22	$60	+$48	+80%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$21	−$2	-10%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Jun 20	$10	−$4	-38%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Apr 18	$50	−$50	-100%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele	Apr 16	$60	−$4	-7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	44¢	$102	1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	5¢	$21	2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	39¢	$115	2h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	40¢	$122	7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	27¢	$118	7h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	17¢	$41	8h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	43¢	$31	8h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	23¢	$102	13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	22¢	$102	13h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	SELL Yes	37¢	$32	28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	56¢	$20	29h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$20	29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	97¢	$165	31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	89¢	$151	32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	40¢	$114	3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$6	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	20¢	$108	3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	16¢	$20	4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$18	4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	5d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	SELL No	26¢	$6	5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	5d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	BUY No	40¢	$10	69d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	12¢	$50	69d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele	SELL Yes	14¢	$56	71d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$60	111d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.04 · official $168.04 (match) · 142 history records